Model & backtest

Every team gets an attack and a defence rating that moves after each match, depending on how many goals it scored and conceded compared with what was expected. These ratings give expected goals for both sides, and from those we get the chances of a home win, draw or away win, over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring. Each past prediction was made using only the matches played before it.

Scored on 0 matches from the 2025/26 season. The settings were chosen using earlier seasons only. Version dpois-1.202610022147, trained on 198540 matches.