Salitas
Réal du FasoExpected goals 1.12 vs 0.89. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Réal du Faso and +1.5 goals
21h agoStade du 4 Aout, Ouagadougou · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Salitas 1.12 vs Réal du Faso 0.89.
That gives 40% home win, 32% draw, 28% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -2.4 pts, draw -0.1 pts, away 2.5 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Réal du Faso and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salitas win | 40% | 2.52 | 2.10 | -17% |
| Draw | 33% | 3.07 | 2.80 | -9% |
| Réal du Faso win | 28% | 3.61 | 3.50 | -3% |
| Salitas (draw no bet) | 59% | 1.70 | - | - |
| Réal du Faso (draw no bet) | 41% | 2.43 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 40% / 32% / 28% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.50 | 43% / 32% / 26% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.