Mladost DG
MornarExpected goals 1.08 vs 1.84. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or Mornar
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Mladost DG 1.08 vs Mornar 1.84.
That gives 22% home win, 24% draw, 54% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -13.6 pts, draw -2.6 pts, away 16.2 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Mornar
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mladost DG win | 21% | 4.71 | 2.55 | -46% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.08 | 3.40 | -17% |
| Mornar win | 54% | 1.84 | 2.35 | +28% |
| Mladost DG (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.56 | - | - |
| Mornar (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.39 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 22% / 24% / 54% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 35% / 26% / 38% | 11.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.