Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Arda KardzhaliExpected goals 1.15 vs 1.27. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw and -3.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.15 vs Arda Kardzhali 1.27.
That gives 33% home win, 29% draw, 38% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 2.0 pts, draw 3.2 pts, away -5.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv win | 32% | 3.09 | 2.90 | -6% |
| Draw | 30% | 3.38 | 3.50 | +3% |
| Arda Kardzhali win | 38% | 2.62 | 2.05 | -22% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw no bet) | 46% | 2.18 | - | - |
| Arda Kardzhali (draw no bet) | 54% | 1.85 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 33% / 29% / 38% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 31% / 26% / 44% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.