Wieczysta Kraków
Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals 1.85 vs 1.34. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoDouble chance : Wieczysta Kraków or draw
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.85 vs Puszcza Niepołomice 1.34.
That gives 49% home win, 24% draw, 27% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -6.6 pts, draw 0.1 pts, away 6.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Wieczysta Kraków or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wieczysta Kraków win | 49% | 2.06 | 1.62 | -21% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | 3.80 | -8% |
| Puszcza Niepołomice win | 27% | 3.70 | 4.33 | +17% |
| Wieczysta Kraków (draw no bet) | 64% | 1.56 | - | - |
| Puszcza Niepołomice (draw no bet) | 36% | 2.80 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 49% / 24% / 27% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.33 | 56% / 24% / 21% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.