Pardubice
Viktoria ŽižkovExpected goals 2.07 vs 1.17. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Pardubice or draw
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Pardubice 2.07 vs Viktoria Žižkov 1.17.
That gives 58% home win, 22% draw, 20% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 1.9 pts, draw -0.5 pts, away -1.4 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Pardubice or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pardubice win | 57% | 1.74 | 1.60 | -8% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | 4.00 | -10% |
| Viktoria Žižkov win | 20% | 4.95 | 4.10 | -17% |
| Pardubice (draw no bet) | 74% | 1.35 | - | - |
| Viktoria Žižkov (draw no bet) | 26% | 3.84 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 58% / 22% / 20% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 56% / 22% / 22% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.