China W
South Korea WMy Model1
49%22%29%
xG 2.0-1.5O2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 2.03 vs 1.54. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoAPI-Football1
35%35%30%
Double chance : China W or draw
21h agoBookmakers2
28%24%47%
O2.5
Bet365 · 21h agoChina WSouth Korea WReferee Almansoori Rawdha · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: China W 2.03 vs South Korea W 1.54.
That gives 49% home win, 22% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 20.5 pts, draw -2.0 pts, away -18.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : China W or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China W win | 48% | 2.06 | 3.25 | +58% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | 3.80 | -13% |
| South Korea W win | 29% | 3.48 | 1.95 | -44% |
| China W (draw no bet) | 63% | 1.59 | - | - |
| South Korea W (draw no bet) | 37% | 2.69 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 49% / 22% / 29% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.95 | 28% / 24% / 47% | 8.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
China W
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
South Korea W
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
China W recent form
- L9/29/2026Korea DPR W 2-0 China W
- W9/25/2026China W 1-0 Vietnam W
- W9/21/2026China W 5-1 Philippines W
- D9/17/2026Uzbekistan W 1-1 China W
- W9/14/2026China W 5-1 Hong Kong W
South Korea W recent form
- L9/29/2026Japan W 2-0 South Korea W
- W9/25/2026South Korea W 6-3 Uzbekistan W
- D9/21/2026South Korea W 1-1 Korea DPR W
- W9/17/2026Bangladesh W 0-6 South Korea W
- W9/14/2026South Korea W 5-0 Myanmar W
Head to head
No past matches stored.