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Friendlies · Friendly InternationalSources agreeFri, Oct 2 04:15 PM
Portugal U18
vs
Romania U18
My Model1
52%26%21%
xG 1.6-0.9U2.5BTTS no

Expected goals 1.59 vs 0.93. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Winner : Portugal U18

21h ago
Bookmakers

Bookmaker odds not available yet

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:15:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Portugal U18 1.59 vs Romania U18 0.93.

That gives 52% home win, 26% draw, 21% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.

API-Football says: Winner : Portugal U18

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Portugal U18 win
52%
1.93--
Draw
27%
3.70--
Romania U18 win
21%
4.74--
Portugal U18 (draw no bet)
71%
1.41--
Romania U18 (draw no bet)
29%
3.46--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Portugal U18

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Romania U18

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Portugal U18 recent form

  • W9/29/2026Portugal U18 2-0 Uzbekistan U18
  • D3/31/2026Portugal U18 1-1 USA U18
  • W3/28/2026Portugal U18 4-0 Iceland U19
  • W3/25/2026Portugal U18 3-1 Morocco U18
  • D2/13/2026Portugal U18 1-1 Austria U18

Romania U18 recent form

  • W9/29/2026Romania U18 2-0 Turkey U18
  • W6/6/2026Czech Republic U18 0-1 Romania U18
  • L6/3/2026Czech Republic U18 3-0 Romania U18
  • L10/14/2025Romania U18 2-3 Spain U18
  • D10/11/2025Portugal U18 1-1 Romania U18

Head to head