Sevilla
Aston VillaExpected goals 1.33 vs 1.70. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Sevilla or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Sevilla 1.33 vs Aston Villa 1.70.
That gives 29% home win, 25% draw, 46% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -1.5 pts, draw -1.6 pts, away 3.1 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Sevilla or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 29% | 3.42 | 2.90 | -15% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | 3.40 | -13% |
| Aston Villa win | 45% | 2.21 | 2.10 | -5% |
| Sevilla (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.55 | - | - |
| Aston Villa (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.64 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 29% / 25% / 46% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 31% / 26% / 43% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.