Laval
RennesExpected goals 1.44 vs 2.37. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : Laval or draw and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Laval 1.44 vs Rennes 2.37.
That gives 22% home win, 20% draw, 58% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 4.1 pts, draw -2.4 pts, away -1.8 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Laval or draw and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laval win | 22% | 4.56 | 5.00 | +10% |
| Draw | 20% | 4.88 | 4.00 | -18% |
| Rennes win | 58% | 1.74 | 1.50 | -14% |
| Laval (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.63 | - | - |
| Rennes (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.38 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 22% / 20% / 58% | ||||
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 18% / 22% / 60% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.