1. FC Kaiserslautern
SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachExpected goals 1.23 vs 1.29. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : 1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw and +1.5 goals
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.23 vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.29.
That gives 34% home win, 28% draw, 37% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -27.8 pts, draw 7.4 pts, away 20.4 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : 1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern win | 34% | 2.93 | 1.44 | -51% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | 4.33 | +25% |
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win | 37% | 2.70 | 5.25 | +94% |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw no bet) | 48% | 2.08 | - | - |
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw no bet) | 52% | 1.92 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 34% / 28% / 37% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.25 | 62% / 21% / 17% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
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No past matches stored.