Grenoble
Stade Lausanne-OuchyExpected goals 0.92 vs 1.86. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Grenoble 0.92 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.86.
That gives 18% home win, 23% draw, 59% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -27.2 pts, draw -2.3 pts, away 29.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grenoble win | 17% | 5.76 | 2.00 | -65% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | 3.50 | -16% |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win | 59% | 1.71 | 3.05 | +79% |
| Grenoble (draw no bet) | 23% | 4.38 | - | - |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (draw no bet) | 77% | 1.30 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 18% / 23% / 59% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.05 | 45% / 26% / 29% | 11.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.