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Friendlies Clubs · Club FriendliesSplitEdge: 1Fri, Oct 2 04:00 PM
Rapid
vs
Genoa
My Model1
58%23%19%
xG 1.9-1.0O2.5BTTS yes

Expected goals 1.91 vs 1.00. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.

20h ago
API-Football1
45%45%10%

Double chance : Rapid or draw

21h ago
Bookmakers2
30%27%43%
O2.5
Bet365 · 21h ago

Kickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM

Not fetched yet

Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Rapid 1.91 vs Genoa 1.00.

That gives 58% home win, 23% draw, 19% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.

Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 28.1 pts, draw -4.2 pts, away -23.9 pts.

API-Football says: Double chance : Rapid or draw

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Rapid win
58%		1.733.00+73%
Draw
24%		4.223.30-22%
Genoa win
19%		5.402.10-61%
Rapid (draw no bet)
76%		1.32--
Genoa (draw no bet)
24%		4.12--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

Bookmaker1X2Fair 1 / X / 2Margin
My Model58% / 23% / 19%
Bet3653.003.302.1030% / 27% / 43%11.3%

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Rapid

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Genoa

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Rapid recent form

  • W9/18/2026Rapid 3-1 Arges Pitesti
  • W9/12/2026Rapid 2-1 FC Voluntari
  • W9/6/2026Oţelul 0-1 Rapid
  • D8/31/2026Rapid 1-1 Universitatea Craiova
  • W8/21/2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0-2 Rapid

Genoa recent form

  • L9/20/2026Parma 2-1 Genoa
  • D9/12/2026Genoa 1-1 Frosinone
  • L9/4/2026Genoa 1-4 Como
  • L8/30/2026Lazio 1-0 Genoa
  • L8/22/2026Genoa 0-2 Napoli

Head to head

No past matches stored.