Red Bull Salzburg
FC BW LinzExpected goals 2.28 vs 1.29. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Red Bull Salzburg or draw
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Red Bull Salzburg 2.28 vs FC BW Linz 1.29.
That gives 59% home win, 20% draw, 20% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -8.0 pts, draw 2.6 pts, away 5.5 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Red Bull Salzburg or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 59% | 1.70 | 1.33 | -22% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | 5.00 | +5% |
| FC BW Linz win | 20% | 4.98 | 6.00 | +21% |
| Red Bull Salzburg (draw no bet) | 75% | 1.34 | - | - |
| FC BW Linz (draw no bet) | 25% | 3.94 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 59% / 20% / 20% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.00 | 67% / 18% / 15% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.