FC Aarau
BSC Young BoysExpected goals 1.59 vs 3.43. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or BSC Young Boys and +1.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Expected goals: FC Aarau 1.59 vs BSC Young Boys 3.43.
That gives 14% home win, 14% draw, 72% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -2.4 pts, draw -2.5 pts, away 4.9 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or BSC Young Boys and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau win | 14% | 7.23 | 5.50 | -24% |
| Draw | 14% | 7.14 | 5.50 | -23% |
| BSC Young Boys win | 72% | 1.39 | 1.33 | -4% |
| FC Aarau (draw no bet) | 16% | 6.22 | - | - |
| BSC Young Boys (draw no bet) | 84% | 1.19 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 14% / 14% / 72% | ||||
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 1.33 | 16% / 16% / 67% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.