Ried
SKU AmstettenExpected goals 1.64 vs 1.83. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : draw or SKU Amstetten
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Ried 1.64 vs SKU Amstetten 1.83.
That gives 34% home win, 23% draw, 42% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -25.7 pts, draw 4.3 pts, away 21.4 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or SKU Amstetten
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ried win | 34% | 2.92 | 1.50 | -49% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | 4.75 | +13% |
| SKU Amstetten win | 42% | 2.38 | 4.33 | +82% |
| Ried (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.23 | - | - |
| SKU Amstetten (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.81 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 34% / 23% / 42% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 60% / 19% / 21% | 10.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.