Piast Gliwice
Wisla KrakowExpected goals 1.34 vs 1.66. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Wisla Krakow
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.34 vs Wisla Krakow 1.66.
That gives 30% home win, 25% draw, 45% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -11.4 pts, draw 1.1 pts, away 10.3 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Wisla Krakow
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice win | 30% | 3.32 | 2.15 | -35% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | 3.75 | -3% |
| Wisla Krakow win | 44% | 2.27 | 2.62 | +16% |
| Piast Gliwice (draw no bet) | 41% | 2.47 | - | - |
| Wisla Krakow (draw no bet) | 59% | 1.68 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 30% / 25% / 45% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.62 | 42% / 24% / 34% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.