Petrolul Ploiesti
CS AfumatiExpected goals 1.62 vs 1.57. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
22h agoCombo Winner : CS Afumati and +1.5 goals
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 1.62 vs CS Afumati 1.57.
That gives 39% home win, 25% draw, 37% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -20.8 pts, draw 2.1 pts, away 18.7 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : CS Afumati and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petrolul Ploiesti win | 39% | 2.60 | 1.50 | -42% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | 4.00 | +1% |
| CS Afumati win | 36% | 2.75 | 5.00 | +82% |
| Petrolul Ploiesti (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.94 | - | - |
| CS Afumati (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.06 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 39% / 25% / 37% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 60% / 22% / 18% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.