HNK Gorica
BravoExpected goals 1.34 vs 1.14. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
22h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Bravo and -3.5 goals
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Expected goals: HNK Gorica 1.34 vs Bravo 1.14.
That gives 41% home win, 28% draw, 31% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 9.1 pts, draw 3.0 pts, away -12.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Bravo and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica win | 40% | 2.48 | 2.88 | +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | 3.60 | +4% |
| Bravo win | 31% | 3.26 | 2.10 | -35% |
| HNK Gorica (draw no bet) | 57% | 1.76 | - | - |
| Bravo (draw no bet) | 43% | 2.31 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 41% / 28% / 31% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.10 | 32% / 25% / 43% | 10.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.