Sturm Graz
Floridsdorfer ACExpected goals 1.57 vs 1.10. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.57 vs Floridsdorfer AC 1.10.
That gives 48% home win, 26% draw, 26% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -17.9 pts, draw 8.2 pts, away 9.7 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : Sturm Graz or draw and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz win | 47% | 2.12 | 1.38 | -35% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | 5.00 | +35% |
| Floridsdorfer AC win | 26% | 3.89 | 5.50 | +41% |
| Sturm Graz (draw no bet) | 65% | 1.54 | - | - |
| Floridsdorfer AC (draw no bet) | 35% | 2.84 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 48% / 26% / 26% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 65% / 18% / 16% | 10.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.