FC Augsburg
Hertha BSCExpected goals 2.13 vs 2.55. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Winner : Hertha BSC and +3.5 goals
21h agoWWK Arena, Augsburg · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 2.13 vs Hertha BSC 2.55.
That gives 33% home win, 19% draw, 48% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -18.9 pts, draw -3.2 pts, away 22.1 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : Hertha BSC and +3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 33% | 3.05 | 1.73 | -43% |
| Draw | 20% | 5.13 | 4.00 | -22% |
| Hertha BSC win | 48% | 2.09 | 3.50 | +67% |
| FC Augsburg (draw no bet) | 41% | 2.46 | - | - |
| Hertha BSC (draw no bet) | 59% | 1.69 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 33% / 19% / 48% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 52% / 22% / 26% | 11.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.