Wisla Plock
Unia SkierniewiceExpected goals 1.63 vs 1.28. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoDouble chance : Wisla Plock or draw
23h agoStadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Plock · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.63 vs Unia Skierniewice 1.28.
That gives 45% home win, 25% draw, 29% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -10.0 pts, draw 3.1 pts, away 6.9 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Wisla Plock or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Plock win | 45% | 2.24 | 1.62 | -28% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | 4.00 | +5% |
| Unia Skierniewice win | 29% | 3.43 | 4.00 | +17% |
| Wisla Plock (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.65 | - | - |
| Unia Skierniewice (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.53 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 45% / 25% / 29% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 55% / 22% / 22% | 11.7% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.