Sparta Praha
Vysočina JihlavaExpected goals 2.43 vs 1.38. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Winner : Sparta Praha and +1.5 goals
22h agoStadion Letná, Prague · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Sparta Praha 2.43 vs Vysočina Jihlava 1.38.
That gives 60% home win, 19% draw, 20% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -4.7 pts, draw 1.5 pts, away 3.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : Sparta Praha and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Praha win | 60% | 1.67 | 1.38 | -17% |
| Draw | 20% | 5.02 | 5.00 | -0% |
| Vysočina Jihlava win | 20% | 4.99 | 5.25 | +5% |
| Sparta Praha (draw no bet) | 75% | 1.33 | - | - |
| Vysočina Jihlava (draw no bet) | 25% | 3.99 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 60% / 19% / 20% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 65% / 18% / 17% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.