Radomiak Radom
Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiExpected goals 1.40 vs 1.62. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Radomiak Radom or draw
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.40 vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.62.
That gives 33% home win, 25% draw, 42% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -19.3 pts, draw 2.8 pts, away 16.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Radomiak Radom or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomiak Radom win | 32% | 3.10 | 1.73 | -44% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | 4.00 | +3% |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win | 42% | 2.39 | 3.50 | +47% |
| Radomiak Radom (draw no bet) | 44% | 2.30 | - | - |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (draw no bet) | 56% | 1.77 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 33% / 25% / 42% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 52% / 22% / 26% | 11.4% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.