AC Horsens
VejleExpected goals 1.82 vs 1.44. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Vejle
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: AC Horsens 1.82 vs Vejle 1.44.
That gives 46% home win, 24% draw, 30% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 3.4 pts, draw -1.8 pts, away -1.7 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Vejle
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Horsens win | 46% | 2.18 | 2.10 | -4% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | 3.50 | -15% |
| Vejle win | 30% | 3.35 | 2.80 | -17% |
| AC Horsens (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.65 | - | - |
| Vejle (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.54 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 46% / 24% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.80 | 43% / 26% / 32% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.