Raków Częstochowa
Polonia BytomExpected goals 2.57 vs 1.60. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Raków Częstochowa or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 2.57 vs Polonia Bytom 1.60.
That gives 58% home win, 19% draw, 23% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -3.6 pts, draw -1.0 pts, away 4.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Raków Częstochowa or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa win | 58% | 1.72 | 1.45 | -16% |
| Draw | 19% | 5.17 | 4.50 | -13% |
| Polonia Bytom win | 23% | 4.44 | 5.00 | +13% |
| Raków Częstochowa (draw no bet) | 72% | 1.39 | - | - |
| Polonia Bytom (draw no bet) | 28% | 3.58 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 58% / 19% / 23% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 62% / 20% / 18% | 11.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.