FC Lugano
Hellas VeronaExpected goals 2.17 vs 0.94. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoWinner : Hellas Verona
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Expected goals: FC Lugano 2.17 vs Hellas Verona 0.94.
That gives 65% home win, 20% draw, 15% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 28.3 pts, draw -5.4 pts, away -22.9 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Hellas Verona
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano win | 65% | 1.55 | 2.45 | +59% |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | 3.50 | -27% |
| Hellas Verona win | 14% | 6.93 | 2.40 | -65% |
| FC Lugano (draw no bet) | 82% | 1.22 | - | - |
| Hellas Verona (draw no bet) | 18% | 5.48 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 65% / 20% / 15% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 37% / 26% / 38% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.