Sudtirol
Wacker InnsbruckExpected goals 0.94 vs 1.57. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Wacker Innsbruck and -3.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Sudtirol 0.94 vs Wacker Innsbruck 1.57.
That gives 22% home win, 27% draw, 51% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -33.0 pts, draw 5.4 pts, away 27.7 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Wacker Innsbruck and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol win | 22% | 4.62 | 1.62 | -65% |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | 4.20 | +14% |
| Wacker Innsbruck win | 51% | 1.96 | 3.75 | +92% |
| Sudtirol (draw no bet) | 30% | 3.36 | - | - |
| Wacker Innsbruck (draw no bet) | 70% | 1.42 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 22% / 27% / 51% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.20 | 3.75 | 55% / 21% / 24% | 12.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.