Gornik Zabrze
Odra OpoleExpected goals 1.47 vs 0.64. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoDouble chance : Gornik Zabrze or draw
21h agoArena Zabrze, Zabrze · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.47 vs Odra Opole 0.64.
That gives 57% home win, 28% draw, 16% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -14.1 pts, draw 10.5 pts, away 3.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Gornik Zabrze or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze win | 56% | 1.77 | 1.27 | -28% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | 5.25 | +49% |
| Odra Opole win | 15% | 6.55 | 7.50 | +14% |
| Gornik Zabrze (draw no bet) | 79% | 1.27 | - | - |
| Odra Opole (draw no bet) | 21% | 4.70 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 57% / 28% / 16% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.25 | 7.50 | 71% / 17% / 12% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.