US Chaouia
KhroubExpected goals 1.68 vs 0.68. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : US Chaouia or draw and -2.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Expected goals: US Chaouia 1.68 vs Khroub 0.68.
That gives 61% home win, 25% draw, 14% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 1.1 pts, draw -1.6 pts, away 0.5 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : US Chaouia or draw and -2.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Chaouia win | 61% | 1.65 | 1.50 | -9% |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | 3.40 | -13% |
| Khroub win | 14% | 7.19 | 6.50 | -10% |
| US Chaouia (draw no bet) | 81% | 1.23 | - | - |
| Khroub (draw no bet) | 19% | 5.36 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 61% / 25% / 14% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.40 | 6.50 | 60% / 26% / 14% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.