MO Constantine
CR Béni ThourExpected goals 1.31 vs 0.79. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : MO Constantine or draw and -3.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Expected goals: MO Constantine 1.31 vs CR Béni Thour 0.79.
That gives 48% home win, 30% draw, 22% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -11.2 pts, draw 3.2 pts, away 8.0 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : MO Constantine or draw and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO Constantine win | 48% | 2.09 | 1.53 | -27% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | 3.40 | +4% |
| CR Béni Thour win | 22% | 4.65 | 6.50 | +40% |
| MO Constantine (draw no bet) | 69% | 1.45 | - | - |
| CR Béni Thour (draw no bet) | 31% | 3.22 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 48% / 30% / 22% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.40 | 6.50 | 59% / 27% / 14% | 10.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.