USM Annaba
Paradou ACExpected goals 1.91 vs 0.78. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : USM Annaba or draw and -3.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Expected goals: USM Annaba 1.91 vs Paradou AC 0.78.
That gives 64% home win, 22% draw, 14% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 26.4 pts, draw -7.4 pts, away -19.0 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : USM Annaba or draw and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM Annaba win | 63% | 1.58 | 2.40 | +52% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | 3.00 | -31% |
| Paradou AC win | 14% | 7.26 | 2.70 | -63% |
| USM Annaba (draw no bet) | 82% | 1.22 | - | - |
| Paradou AC (draw no bet) | 18% | 5.59 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 64% / 22% / 14% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.70 | 37% / 30% / 33% | 12.0% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.