Wales U19
Norway U19Expected goals 1.67 vs 1.74. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoWinner : Norway U19
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Wales U19 1.67 vs Norway U19 1.74.
That gives 37% home win, 24% draw, 40% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 15.5 pts, draw 0.6 pts, away -16.1 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Norway U19
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wales U19 win | 36% | 2.74 | 4.20 | +53% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | 3.90 | -6% |
| Norway U19 win | 39% | 2.54 | 1.60 | -37% |
| Wales U19 (draw no bet) | 48% | 2.08 | - | - |
| Norway U19 (draw no bet) | 52% | 1.93 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 37% / 24% / 40% | ||||
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.60 | 21% / 23% / 56% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.