Ittihad Tanger
Moghreb TetouanExpected goals 1.07 vs 1.04. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
53m agoCombo Winner : Ittihad Tanger and -3.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Ittihad Tanger 1.07 vs Moghreb Tetouan 1.04.
That gives 34% home win, 33% draw, 33% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS no are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -13.7 pts, draw 2.7 pts, away 11.0 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : Ittihad Tanger and -3.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ittihad Tanger win | 35% | 2.88 | 1.90 | -34% |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | 3.00 | -4% |
| Moghreb Tetouan win | 33% | 3.01 | 4.20 | +40% |
| Ittihad Tanger (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.96 | - | - |
| Moghreb Tetouan (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.05 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 34% / 33% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 4.20 | 48% / 30% / 22% | 9.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.