Sportivo Carapeguá
Deportivo CapiataExpected goals 1.30 vs 1.21. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoDouble chance : Sportivo Carapeguá or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Sportivo Carapeguá 1.30 vs Deportivo Capiata 1.21.
That gives 37% home win, 30% draw, 33% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -4.4 pts, draw 3.6 pts, away 0.7 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Sportivo Carapeguá or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Carapeguá win | 38% | 2.66 | 2.15 | -19% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | 3.40 | -2% |
| Deportivo Capiata win | 33% | 3.00 | 2.80 | -7% |
| Sportivo Carapeguá (draw no bet) | 53% | 1.89 | - | - |
| Deportivo Capiata (draw no bet) | 47% | 2.13 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 37% / 30% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 42% / 26% / 32% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.