Encarnación
ResistenciaExpected goals 1.24 vs 1.28. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoDouble chance : Encarnación or draw
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Encarnación 1.24 vs Resistencia 1.28.
That gives 34% home win, 30% draw, 36% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -6.7 pts, draw 2.7 pts, away 4.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Encarnación or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Encarnación win | 35% | 2.89 | 2.20 | -24% |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | 3.30 | -5% |
| Resistencia win | 36% | 2.74 | 2.80 | +2% |
| Encarnación (draw no bet) | 49% | 2.05 | - | - |
| Resistencia (draw no bet) | 51% | 1.95 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 34% / 30% / 36% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 41% / 27% / 32% | 11.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.