1. FC Nürnberg
FC Ingolstadt 04Expected goals 2.11 vs 1.08. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoCombo Winner : 1. FC Nürnberg and +1.5 goals
23h agoMax-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.11 vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1.08.
That gives 61% home win, 21% draw, 18% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 5.0 pts, draw -2.0 pts, away -3.0 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : 1. FC Nürnberg and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg win | 60% | 1.66 | 1.60 | -4% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.56 | 3.80 | -17% |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 win | 18% | 5.60 | 4.20 | -25% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg (draw no bet) | 77% | 1.30 | - | - |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 (draw no bet) | 23% | 4.37 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 61% / 21% / 18% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 55% / 23% / 21% | 12.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.