Congo DR
UgandaExpected goals 1.73 vs 0.97. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
22h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Uganda and -2.5 goals
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Congo DR 1.73 vs Uganda 0.97.
That gives 55% home win, 25% draw, 20% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.8 pts, draw -2.1 pts, away 1.3 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Uganda and -2.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congo DR win | 54% | 1.84 | 1.81 | -2% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.92 | 3.64 | -7% |
| Uganda win | 20% | 4.96 | 5.16 | +4% |
| Congo DR (draw no bet) | 73% | 1.37 | - | - |
| Uganda (draw no bet) | 27% | 3.70 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 55% / 25% / 20% | ||||
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.64 | 5.16 | 54% / 27% / 19% | 2.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.