FC Saarbrücken
NancyExpected goals 1.92 vs 1.28. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Nancy and +1.5 goals
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Expected goals: FC Saarbrücken 1.92 vs Nancy 1.28.
That gives 52% home win, 23% draw, 25% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 15.9 pts, draw -3.3 pts, away -12.7 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Nancy and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Saarbrücken win | 52% | 1.94 | 2.50 | +29% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | 3.40 | -19% |
| Nancy win | 25% | 4.06 | 2.40 | -41% |
| FC Saarbrücken (draw no bet) | 68% | 1.48 | - | - |
| Nancy (draw no bet) | 32% | 3.09 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 52% / 23% / 25% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 36% / 26% / 38% | 11.1% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.