1. FC Heidenheim
Würzburger KickersExpected goals 1.93 vs 1.99. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Würzburger Kickers and +1.5 goals
22h agoVoith-Arena, Heidenheim · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.93 vs Würzburger Kickers 1.99.
That gives 38% home win, 22% draw, 40% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -27.8 pts, draw 1.8 pts, away 26.0 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Würzburger Kickers and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 38% | 2.65 | 1.36 | -49% |
| Draw | 22% | 4.52 | 4.50 | -0% |
| Würzburger Kickers win | 40% | 2.49 | 6.25 | +151% |
| 1. FC Heidenheim (draw no bet) | 48% | 2.06 | - | - |
| Würzburger Kickers (draw no bet) | 52% | 1.94 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 38% / 22% / 40% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 6.25 | 66% / 20% / 14% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.