Suriname
GuatemalaExpected goals 1.79 vs 1.68. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
2h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Guatemala and +1.5 goals
22h agoDr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion, Paramaribo · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Suriname 1.79 vs Guatemala 1.68.
That gives 40% home win, 25% draw, 35% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -4.7 pts, draw -2.6 pts, away 7.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Guatemala and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suriname win | 40% | 2.48 | 2.00 | -19% |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 | 3.30 | -21% |
| Guatemala win | 36% | 2.79 | 3.20 | +15% |
| Suriname (draw no bet) | 53% | 1.89 | - | - |
| Guatemala (draw no bet) | 47% | 2.13 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 40% / 25% / 35% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 45% / 27% / 28% | 11.6% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.