St. Kitts and Nevis
CubaExpected goals 1.73 vs 1.55. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
3h agoDouble chance : draw or Cuba
23h agoHasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Expected goals: St. Kitts and Nevis 1.73 vs Cuba 1.55.
That gives 41% home win, 25% draw, 33% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 20.4 pts, draw -1.8 pts, away -18.6 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Cuba
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Kitts and Nevis win | 41% | 2.41 | 4.33 | +80% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | 3.30 | -19% |
| Cuba win | 34% | 2.95 | 1.73 | -41% |
| St. Kitts and Nevis (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.82 | - | - |
| Cuba (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.22 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 41% / 25% / 33% | ||||
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 3.30 | 1.73 | 21% / 27% / 52% | 11.2% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.