St. Lucia
GuadeloupeExpected goals 1.55 vs 1.74. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
3h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Guadeloupe and +1.5 goals
23h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Expected goals: St. Lucia 1.55 vs Guadeloupe 1.74.
That gives 33% home win, 25% draw, 41% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -1.1 pts, draw 1.7 pts, away -0.6 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Guadeloupe and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610022147
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Lucia win | 34% | 2.97 | 2.60 | -12% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | 3.80 | -7% |
| Guadeloupe win | 42% | 2.40 | 2.15 | -10% |
| St. Lucia (draw no bet) | 45% | 2.24 | - | - |
| Guadeloupe (draw no bet) | 55% | 1.81 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 33% / 25% / 41% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 35% / 24% / 42% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.