Nicaragua
Costa RicaExpected goals 1.81 vs 1.81. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or Costa Rica and +2.5 goals
21h agoNicaragua National Football Stadium, Managua · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Expected goals: Nicaragua 1.81 vs Costa Rica 1.81.
That gives 38% home win, 23% draw, 39% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 27.8 pts, draw 8.8 pts, away -36.6 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or Costa Rica and +2.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicaragua win | 38% | 2.61 | 8.50 | +226% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | 6.50 | +51% |
| Costa Rica win | 38% | 2.61 | 1.20 | -54% |
| Nicaragua (draw no bet) | 50% | 2.00 | - | - |
| Costa Rica (draw no bet) | 50% | 2.00 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 38% / 23% / 39% | ||||
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 6.50 | 1.20 | 11% / 14% / 75% | 10.5% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
No past matches stored.