Karviná
Stal RzeszówMy Model1
70%16%14%
xG 2.8-1.2O2.5BTTS yes
Expected goals 2.76 vs 1.20. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoAPI-Football1
45%45%10%
Winner : Karviná
22h agoBookmakers1
43%24%33%
O2.5
Bet365 · 22h agoKarvináStal RzeszówKickoff 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Not fetched yet
Why the model thinks this
Expected goals: Karviná 2.76 vs Stal Rzeszów 1.20.
That gives 70% home win, 16% draw, 14% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 27.0 pts, draw -7.5 pts, away -19.5 pts.
API-Football says: Winner : Karviná
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
All markets
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karviná win | 70% | 1.44 | 2.10 | +46% |
| Draw | 17% | 5.94 | 3.75 | -37% |
| Stal Rzeszów win | 14% | 7.35 | 2.70 | -63% |
| Karviná (draw no bet) | 84% | 1.20 | - | - |
| Stal Rzeszów (draw no bet) | 16% | 6.11 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
Bookmaker comparison
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 70% / 16% / 14% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.70 | 43% / 24% / 33% | 11.3% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineups & absences
Karviná
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Stal Rzeszów
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
Absent
None reported.
Karviná recent form
- W9/18/2026Karviná 3-2 Hanácká
- L9/11/2026Třinec 3-2 Karviná
- W9/4/2026Karviná 2-0 Kladno
- L8/29/2026Příbram 2-1 Karviná
- D8/26/2026Kozlovice 1-1 Karviná
Stal Rzeszów recent form
- W9/19/2026Miedz Legnica 2-3 Stal Rzeszów
- W9/13/2026Odra Opole 0-1 Stal Rzeszów
- W9/5/2026Stal Rzeszów 2-1 Polonia Warszawa
- W8/28/2026Unia Skierniewice 0-1 Stal Rzeszów
- L8/24/2026Stal Rzeszów 0-1 Ruch Chorzów
Head to head
No past matches stored.