Cumnock Juniors
Auchinleck TalbotExpected goals 1.52 vs 1.76. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : draw or Auchinleck Talbot
22h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Cumnock Juniors 1.52 vs Auchinleck Talbot 1.76.
That gives 33% home win, 24% draw, 43% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 0.1 pts, draw 1.9 pts, away -2.0 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : draw or Auchinleck Talbot
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumnock Juniors win | 33% | 3.06 | 2.75 | -10% |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +1% |
| Auchinleck Talbot win | 43% | 2.34 | 2.00 | -14% |
| Cumnock Juniors (draw no bet) | 43% | 2.31 | - | - |
| Auchinleck Talbot (draw no bet) | 57% | 1.76 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 33% / 24% / 43% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 4.10 | 2.00 | 33% / 22% / 45% | 10.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.