Teplice
Dynamo DresdenExpected goals 2.05 vs 1.62. Home side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Winner : Dynamo Dresden and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Teplice 2.05 vs Dynamo Dresden 1.62.
That gives 48% home win, 22% draw, 30% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home 6.9 pts, draw 0.3 pts, away -7.2 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Winner : Dynamo Dresden and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice win | 47% | 2.12 | 2.20 | +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | 4.10 | -7% |
| Dynamo Dresden win | 30% | 3.32 | 2.38 | -28% |
| Teplice (draw no bet) | 61% | 1.64 | - | - |
| Dynamo Dresden (draw no bet) | 39% | 2.57 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 48% / 22% / 30% | ||||
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 4.10 | 2.38 | 41% / 22% / 38% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.