Persiraja Banda Aceh
Sumsel UnitedExpected goals 1.71 vs 1.05. Teams rate closely on recent goals.
21h agoDouble chance : Persiraja Banda Aceh or draw
22h agoHarapan Bangsa Stadium, Banda Aceh · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Expected goals: Persiraja Banda Aceh 1.71 vs Sumsel United 1.05.
That gives 52% home win, 25% draw, 23% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -0.3 pts, draw -0.5 pts, away 0.8 pts.
API-Football says: Double chance : Persiraja Banda Aceh or draw
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persiraja Banda Aceh win | 52% | 1.93 | 1.70 | -12% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | 3.50 | -10% |
| Sumsel United win | 22% | 4.48 | 4.10 | -8% |
| Persiraja Banda Aceh (draw no bet) | 70% | 1.43 | - | - |
| Sumsel United (draw no bet) | 30% | 3.33 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 52% / 25% / 23% | ||||
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.10 | 53% / 26% / 22% | 11.8% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.