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Copa Argentina · Quarter-finalsFT
Platense
1 - 0
Estudiantes L.P.
My Model1
40%27%33%
xG 1.4-1.2U2.5BTTS yes

Expected goals 1.40 vs 1.24. Teams rate closely on recent goals.

22h ago
API-Football

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Bookmakers

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Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa · Referee Facundo Tello · Kickoff 10/2/2026, 12:15:00 AM

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Why the model thinks this

Expected goals: Platense 1.40 vs Estudiantes L.P. 1.24.

That gives 40% home win, 27% draw, 33% away win; under 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.

Model version dpois-1.202610020245

Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.

All markets

MarketModelFair oddBookmakerValue
Platense win
40%		2.52--
Draw
28%		3.57--
Estudiantes L.P. win
32%		3.10--
Platense (draw no bet)
55%		1.81--
Estudiantes L.P. (draw no bet)
45%		2.23--

Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.

Bookmaker comparison

No odds stored yet.

Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.

Lineups & absences

Platense

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Estudiantes L.P.

Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).

Absent

None reported.

Platense recent form

  • L9/20/2026Platense 0-1 Newells Old Boys
  • W9/15/2026Platense 2-1 Fluminense
  • L9/12/2026Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Platense
  • L9/8/2026Fluminense 2-0 Platense
  • D9/4/2026Platense 1-1 Deportivo Riestra

Estudiantes L.P. recent form

  • L9/22/2026Lanus 2-1 Estudiantes L.P.
  • W9/17/2026Corinthians 0-1 Estudiantes L.P.
  • W9/12/2026Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Platense
  • D9/10/2026Estudiantes L.P. 1-1 Corinthians
  • L9/6/2026Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Estudiantes L.P.

Head to head