Dukla Praha
FK JablonecExpected goals 0.88 vs 2.60. Away side rates clearly stronger on recent goals.
20h agoCombo Double chance : draw or FK Jablonec and +1.5 goals
21h agoKickoff 10/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Expected goals: Dukla Praha 0.88 vs FK Jablonec 2.60.
That gives 10% home win, 16% draw, 74% away win; over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes are the more likely outcomes.
Versus fair bookmaker prices the model differs by home -14.1 pts, draw -8.7 pts, away 22.8 pts.
API-Football says: Combo Double chance : draw or FK Jablonec and +1.5 goals
Model version dpois-1.202610020245
Expected goals come from each team's attack and defence ratings, updated after every past match, plus home advantage.
| Market | Model | Fair odd | Bookmaker | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dukla Praha win | 10% | 10.17 | 3.70 | -64% |
| Draw | 16% | 6.07 | 3.60 | -41% |
| FK Jablonec win | 74% | 1.36 | 1.75 | +29% |
| Dukla Praha (draw no bet) | 12% | 8.49 | - | - |
| FK Jablonec (draw no bet) | 88% | 1.13 | - | - |
Model chances for every market. Value = model chance x bookmaker odd - 1; green means the price beats the model's fair odd. Press Update to load the latest prices.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Fair 1 / X / 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| My Model | 10% / 16% / 74% | ||||
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 24% / 25% / 51% | 11.9% |
Fair % removes each bookmaker's margin. Sorted by lowest margin first.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.
Lineup not published yet (usually ~1h before kickoff).
None reported.